The key earnings growth figure for the Triple Lock, originally announced in September, has been revised upwards by 0.1%

The May-July total earnings growth figure is one of the three components of the Triple Lock calculation, the others being September CPI annual inflation and the 2.5% floor. In our earlier Bulletin of 11 September, we reported that the Office for National Statistics has said that the May-July earnings (including bonuses) was 4.7%, implying that would be the figure used for new and old state pension increases next April.

Today’s ONS earnings data has revised the May-July figure to 4.8%, now matching the regular earnings (excluding bonuses) increase for the May-July period. Unless September’s annual CPI inflation number, due out on 22 October, is more than 1% higher than August’s, it is the earnings growth of 4.8% that will win the Triple Lock battle. 

Based on the revised 4.8% overall figure – and roundings may differ – the figures in our last Bulletin for next year’s state pensions are now:

The revised 4.8% increase compares with a projection of 4.6% in the last Economic and Fiscal Outlook from the OBR. At a revised annual £12,548, the new state pension will be just £22 below the personal allowance. 

COMMENT

In theory the figure could change again – the ONS is having data collection problems.

 

Courtesy of Techlink